1. Context & Market

Record: Commanders 3–9, Vikings 4–8. Both on skids: WAS has lost 7 straight, MIN 4 straight.  Line: Commanders -1.5 on the road, total around 41.5–43.5. Books lean slightly to Washington.  Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium (indoors), so no weather edge. 

Injuries / QBs

Washington: Jayden Daniels has been cleared to play after the elbow issue, but your recent log shows Mariota starting most of the last month. Expect Daniels to get the bulk, Mariota as insurance.  Minnesota: J.J. McCarthy and Brosmer have both played; McCarthy’s turnover issues (11 INTs in the team passing line you posted) are a huge storyline. 

2. Washington offense vs Minnesota defense

(WAS O vs MIN D):

Run game (WAS strength vs MIN weakness)

WAS rush: 138.9 yds/g (3rd), 4.9 YPC (6th), 28.4 rush att (9th). MIN run D: allows 128.4 yds/g (23rd), 4.0 YPC (11th) — yards volume is the bigger problem. Washington is clearly built run-first and should lean into that; Minnesota has been talked about all year as regressed vs run from 2024’s elite unit. 

Pass game

WAS pass: 198.7 yds/g (22nd), 6.7 YPA (14th), 62.8% comp (21st), QB rating 88.7 (17th). Very middling. MIN pass D: 178.4 yds/g (5th), 6.4 YPA (14th), QB rating allowed 93.0 (21st). They limit yardage, but efficiency allowed is only average and the unit is on the field a lot.

Recent WAS passing form (your log):

Mariota last 3 starts: vs DEN: 294 / 50 (5.9 YPA, 2–1 TD/INT) – volume, not efficiency. vs MIA: 213 / 30 (7.1 YPA, 1–1). vs DET: 213 / 22 (9.7 YPA, 2–0, 133.3 rating).

So: when protected and on-script, they can hit explosives, but it’s volatile. Their OL actually held up pretty well vs Denver’s front recently. 

Other edges

Turnovers: Washington offense: 6 INT on the year in the NFL stats, not horrific; they’re slightly negative overall, but Minnesota’s D doesn’t take the ball away much (0.5 INT/game in your table).  Penalties: both teams are middling; nothing huge here.

Net: Washington should be able to control the ground and generate manageable passing spots. Against a Vikings D that is solid but gassed by a bad offense, I give WAS a modest edge here, especially if Daniels’ legs are in play on option stuff.

3. Minnesota offense vs Washington defense

(MIN O vs WAS D):

Overall offensive profile

MIN total offense: 272.6 yds/g (29th), 5.2 YPP (27th). Washington defense: allowing 388.2 yds/g (31st), 6.5 YPP (32nd). Classic “terrible offense vs terrible defense” spot.

Passing – disaster vs disaster

MIN pass: 173.2 yds/g (29th), 5.7 YPA (29th), 60.2% comp (28th), QB rating 66.1 (32nd), 4 TD / 11 INT in the summary line. WAS pass D: 254.9 yds/g (31st), 8.2 YPA (32nd), rating allowed 106.4 (31st). So: Vikings QBs are turning it over and inefficient, but this is the softest secondary they’ve seen in weeks.

Recent game log you gave:

McCarthy vs BAL/CHI/GB: 1–2, 1–2, 0–2 TD/INT, all sub-60 rating. Brosmer vs SEA: 126 yards, 0–4 TD/INT, rating 32.8. This is as cold as a QB room gets.

Washington’s D under Dan Quinn taking back play-calling has tightened up some, but they still give up explosives and points; fan optimism is more about “less of a disaster” than “good defense.” 

Run game

MIN rush O: 99.4 yds/g (25th), 4.6 YPC (10th) – decent efficiency, low volume. WAS run D: 133.3 yds/g (27th), 4.7 YPC (26th). If Minnesota commits to the ground, they can move it, especially if Chandler is activated. 

Turnovers – biggest factor

Your Vikings O line: 1.6 INT/game (32nd), 3.6 sacks allowed (30th). Washington D: 0.5 INT/game, 2.2 sacks – not ferocious, but they’ll get some pressure vs this OL. Minnesota is -15 in turnover margin on the year, per Vikings preview, and they’re 5–21 in games where they lose the turnover battle since 2022. 

In a near pick’em, I weight that heavily: Vikings almost have to play a clean game to win, and they haven’t been doing that.

4. Recent form & trends

Washington: 0–7 SU last 7, 1–6 ATS, but the last two have been competitive (OT loss and the 27–26 L vs Denver). Offense has looked a little better, and the OL grade vs DEN was encouraging.  Minnesota: 1–6 SU last 7, 1–6 ATS. Last week: shut out 26–0 by SEA; offense completely non-functional.  H2H: Vikings have won 3 straight vs Washington and are 5–1 SU last 6 in the series. 

So: historical edge MIN, current form edge actually leans slightly WAS (they’re at least scoring and moving the ball, even in losses).

5. Special teams / Kicking

Washington ST: KO return: 28.6 yds (2nd) – big hidden yardage upside. FG: 15/21, 71.4% (30th) – shaky kicker. Minnesota ST: Punt coverage: allowing just 3.8 yds/ret (1st). FG: 24/26, 92.3% (top-10 unit).

Close game + bad WAS FG% + excellent MIN FG% means late-game 40–50 yard kicks clearly favor the Vikings.

6. Strengths / weaknesses snapshot

Washington – strengths

Top-3 rushing volume, top-10 YPC. Facing a run D that’s middle-bottom in yardage allowed. More functional passing game lately than Minnesota. QB upside: Daniels’ mobility is the single most dynamic element in the game if he’s truly healthy.

Washington – weaknesses

Leaky pass defense, worst YPP allowed in NFL. Inconsistent QB play, especially if they get into 3rd-and-long. Poor kicking in a game that likely lands tight.

Minnesota – strengths

Pass defense yardage is good; they can force WAS into long drives. ST and FG edge. Home dome + noise.

Minnesota – weaknesses

Offense is broken: bottom of league in QB rating, heavy interception problem, 4 TD / 11 INT line you pasted. Turnover margin -15 on the year; historically lose almost every game when negative.  Run game underused despite decent efficiency, and if they chase points, they go pass-heavy with bad QB play.

7. Game script & prediction

Likely script

Washington leans on the run (RBs + Daniels/Mariota zone-read), keeps ahead of the chains, and hits some intermediate shots off play action. Minnesota tries to “let it rip” again with McCarthy to Jefferson/Addison, but any early turnover will tilt them toward a more conservative, run-heavy approach. Washington secondary will give up a couple of chunk plays, so I expect at least one long JJ or Addison catch, but sustained drives will be difficult if the Vikings stay mistake-prone. Red zone: WAS run game + QB legs are more reliable than a pass-centric MIN red-zone attack that has struggled.

Given all that plus the market saying Commanders -1.5 on the road, I make:

Washington roughly -3 true power-rated on a neutral vs this version of the Vikings, then subtract ~2.5 for U.S. Bank → about a coinflip / slight WAS lean. Your raw YPP-type numbers (bad MIN O vs awful WAS D; decent WAS O vs average MIN D) probably land near pick’em too.

Who wins?

I give a small edge to Washington because:

Turnover profile: Vikings’ -15 and 32nd in QB rating vs a defense that may finally cash in on a few mistakes.  Rushing advantage: Clear better run team vs a defense that bleeds rushing yards; that travels and plays in any script. QB upside: If Daniels is close to 100%, he’s the best offensive player on the field outside of Jefferson, and the Commanders’ OL just held up vs Denver’s front. 

Minnesota’s main path is win the turnover battle (for once) and force Washington to kick 3–4 long FGs, where their edge in kickers could flip it.

8. Projected final score

Factoring numbers, recent pace, and the total in low-40s:

Projected final: Washington 23 – Minnesota 20

That’s:

Washington slightly over their season scoring average (21.8) but in line with the run-game advantage. Minnesota a tick above their 18.7 average because Washington’s secondary is that bad and likely gives up a couple of big plays.

So I’d lean:

Side: Washington to win outright (moneyline) and very small lean to cover -1.5. Total: Slight lean under 43.5 but close to market; not a strong edge either way.