Minnesota looks like the side here.

I’ll walk through it in buckets, then give you a score call at the end.

1. Big-picture form & context

Phoenix (PHO)

Last 10: 5–5 SU, 6–4 ATS, 5–5 O/U Very up-and-down, alternating strong offensive nights (125 @ LAL, 127 @ POR) with clunkers (92 vs HOU, 98 @ HOU). Most recent: blown out 98–117 at HOU, so trending a bit downward offensively, especially without Booker.

Minnesota (MIN)

Last 10: 7–3 SU, but only 3–7 ATS, 4–6 O/U Winning a lot of games, but as favorites they’ve been overpriced vs the number. Recent stretch: wins vs LAC, NO (twice), SA, BOS, with only one loss in the last six (at OKC).

Last meeting (Nov 21)

PHO 114 – 113 MIN in Phoenix. Very tight game; suggests there isn’t a huge quality gap when both are reasonably healthy. Now the venue flips to Minnesota and Phoenix is worse off injury-wise (no Booker).

2. Injuries & starting lineups

Phoenix injuries

Devin Booker – OUT (groin) J. Green – OUT (hamstring) I. Livers – Day-to-day (hip)

That’s huge. Booker is their primary on-ball creator, late-clock scorer, and the guy you trust in tight 4Q possessions. With him out, the last game’s starting unit was:

F: Dillon Brooks – 31 min, 23 pts, 4 ast, 4 reb F: Royce O’Neale – 19 min, 0 pts, 2 ast, 2 reb C: M. Williams – 17 min, 10 pts, 3 reb G: Collin Gillespie – 29 min, 13 pts, 3 ast G: Grayson Allen – 26 min, 9 pts

That’s a lineup with only one serious self-creator (Brooks) and then role players/spot shooters. The offensive ceiling without Booker is clearly lower and more volatile.

Minnesota injuries

No injuries listed. Full squad available.

Last game’s starters:

F: Julius Randle – 24 pts, 6 ast, 3 reb F: Jaden McDaniels – 27 pts, 2 stl, 1 blk C: Rudy Gobert – 7 reb, 1 blk G: Donte DiVincenzo – 5 pts, 4 ast, 4 reb G: Anthony Edwards – 15 pts, 4 ast, 6 reb, 2 blk

Minnesota has multiple creators (Edwards, Randle) plus two-way wings and an elite rim protector. Health/availability is a clear edge to MIN.

Impact:

PHO’s offense becomes much more scheme/spacing-dependent with limited isolation scoring. MIN has all its offensive engines available, plus defensive stoppers (McDaniels, Gobert) to throw at PHO’s remaining threats.

3. Offense vs defense – stat profile

Phoenix offense

FG%: 48.6% (7th) – very efficient shooting. 3P%: 38.9% (4th), 3PM: 14.5 (7th) – legit elite from three. Points: 120.3 PPG (6th) – top-tier scoring when fully functional. FGA: 87.3 (26th) – relatively low volume, high efficiency; they don’t play hyper-fast but they shoot well. FT: 26.7 FTA (8th), 77.9% (20th) – gets to the line, but only average conversion. AST: 26.5 (12th) – decent ball movement. TO: 15.1 (16th) – roughly league-average turnover rate.

Without Booker, you expect:

Efficiency to dip (more tough shots for Brooks/Allen). Fewer high-quality pick-and-rolls and drive-and-kicks. More reliance on spot threes and secondary creation.

Minnesota defense (vs PHO offense

Allows 113.8 PPG (8th) – strong overall defensive scoring profile. Opponents FGA around 85.5 (2nd fewest) – they suppress volume, so you don’t get a ton of shots up. Steals: 8.7 (1st) – they’re extremely active in passing lanes. Blocks: 4.5 (26th) – rim protection numbers look mediocre in the raw stats, but Gobert’s presence still alters shots; this stat is probably more about scheme than true rim deterrence.

Matchup effect:

PHO thrives on efficiency but has fewer creators and is now facing a defense that limits attempts and forces turnovers. MIN’s ball pressure (1st in steals) is a bad matchup for a PHO backcourt without a true stud ballhandler.

4. Minnesota offense vs Phoenix defense

We don’t get the full PHO defense panel here, but we can infer a bit from the shared stat rows:

PHO blocks: 5.1 (3rd) – very good rim protection numbers. Steals: 8.3 (9th) – they’re active defensively.

Recent MIN scoring:

109 vs LAC 125, 149 in back-to-back at NO 125 vs SA 119 vs BOS 120 vs WAS 120 vs DAL

This is an offense that’s regularly in the 120+ range, especially against weaker or average defenses. With Randle + Edwards + shooters, they can score in multiple ways.

Key offensive edges for MIN:

Size & physicality: Randle + Gobert + McDaniels vs Brooks/O’Neale/M. Williams gives MIN a big inside and rebounding advantage. PHO rebounding: 43.2 (19th) overall. MIN offensive rebounding: 11.1 (9th) – they’re strong on the offensive glass. Multiple initiators: Edwards and Randle can both attack mismatches; DiVincenzo adds secondary playmaking.

PHO defense strengths:

Rim protection (blocks), active hands. They can junk it up, force some turnovers, and get out in transition.

But the talent gap plus PHO’s shorter rotation without Booker means over 48 minutes, MIN should generate a consistent scoring baseline in the mid-teens to low-20s per quarter.

5. Turnovers, tempo, and “hidden” factors

Turnovers: PHO: 15.1 (16th) MIN: 17.3 (2nd worst)

Both teams can be sloppy, but Minnesota has the higher turnover tendency. PHO’s 8.3 steals (9th) suggests they can exploit that and get some easy points. That’s one of the few areas where PHO could swing the game if they really win the turnover battle by +4 or more.

Tempo / scoring environment: PHO doesn’t take a lot of shots (26th FGA) and MIN suppresses attempts (2nd fewer FGA allowed). MIN games recently have been high scoring mostly because their offense is hot and they’ve been in some shootouts. With PHO missing Booker, it’s less likely this turns into a track meet, more into a controlled, mid-tempo game with spurts of scoring. Clutch / finishing games: The blurb about Chris Finch liking how MIN is finishing suggests they’ve been closing well lately, even if ATS hasn’t been kind. PHO’s narrow win in the last H2H (114–113) came at home and likely with better health; repeating that on the road with Booker out is tougher.

6. Edge summary

Advantages for Minnesota

Health & depth – full roster vs PHO missing its star. Frontcourt edge – Randle/Gobert/McDaniels should control the glass and interior. Recent form – 7–3 last 10, several impressive wins vs playoff-level teams. Home floor – tough road environment for a shorthanded PHO team that just got hammered in Houston. Multiple scorers – can survive an off night from one star because of multiple weapons.

Advantages for Phoenix

Three-point shooting – Top-5 in 3P% and top-10 in makes; if Allen, Brooks, and others get hot, they can hang or steal it. Turnover potential – MIN’s 17.3 TOs per game gives PHO a path via live-ball turnovers and transition buckets. Confidence from last meeting – They have already beaten this team, even if circumstances were different.

Overall, though, you’re asking a shorthanded Phoenix squad to beat a healthy, in-form Minnesota team on the road that’s been consistently winning games. The structural edges (rebounding, shot creation, home court) are on MIN’s side.

7. Prediction

I’d expect:

Minnesota to control the glass and get more high-percentage looks around the rim. Phoenix to have stretches where the three-ball keeps them in it, but they’ll struggle in half-court late without Booker as a closer. Turnovers to keep it from becoming a total blowout, but depth wins over 48 minutes.

Likely winner

Minnesota Timberwolves SU.

Projected final score

Minnesota 118 Phoenix 110

That implies a moderate-high total (228) but leans slightly under the kind of “math” you’d see if the market opened this in the low-230s, largely because Booker’s absence drags PHO’s offensive ceiling down.

1. Side: Spread analysis

✅ Lean: Minnesota -5 / -5.5

Why this is playable (but not auto-smash):

PHO without Booker = late-game offense downgrade MIN has multiple closers (Edwards + Randle) MIN rebounding + interior scoring edge → more “easy” points PHO likely relies heavily on jump shooting variance

However…

⚠️ Why it’s not MIN -8 or higher

MIN is 3–7 ATS last 10 High turnover profile keeps games closer than talent gap suggests PHO is 6–4 ATS last 10 and scrappy

📌 Best number:

MIN -4.5 to -5.5 = playable At -6.5+, edge thins significantly

✅ Best use: straight bet or teaser leg (more below)

2. Total: Over / Under

✅ Lean: UNDER 231 (stronger than side)

Key reasons:

PHO pace + usage drops sharply without Booker PHO already ranks 26th in FGA MIN defense ranks 2nd in limiting opponent shot attempts Recent PHO trend: 98 vs HOU 92 vs HOU 112 vs SAC Last H2H: 227 total (114–113) with Booker healthier

Even with MIN’s offense rolling, Phoenix dragging pace + limited creation caps upside.

📌 Target numbers

Under 232 = good Under 230 = still playable Under ≤228 = thin