Philly has a tiny overall edge here, but it’s close enough that game script and turnovers are going to matter a lot.

1. Quarterbacks & Recent Form

Jalen Hurts (PHI)

Season line

203.2 pass yds/g, 6.9 Y/A, 8 TD / 1 INT, 101.9 rating (5th)

Last 5 games:

Best: 4 TD / 0 INT vs NYG, 9.0 Y/A, 141.5 rating Most recent: 230 yds, 2 TD / 1 INT vs CHI (loss), solid efficiency Only 1 INT over the season line you gave, even with heavy volume vs DAL (39 attempts, 7.4 Y/A, 99.2 rating)

Takeaway:

Hurts is protecting the ball at an elite rate and still generating chunk plays when the script allows. Even when the offense is clunky (DET, GB), he’s not killing them with turnovers.

Justin Herbert / Trey Lance (LAC)

Season line:

195.0 pass yds/g, 7.3 Y/A, 8 TD / 4 INT, 77.1-ish team QB rating vs PHI defense

Recent:

vs LV: Herbert 151 yds, 2 TD / 1 INT, strong efficiency in a controlled script vs PIT/TEN/MIN earlier: good to very good games (6.7–9.1 Y/A, 2–3 TD most days) vs JAC: disaster game – 81 yds, 0/1; Lance had to come in (37 yds)

Takeaway:

Herbert still has a ceiling that’s as high or higher than Hurts as a passer, but the volatility plus Lance coming in at times suggests either health or performance questions. That volatility matters against a defense like Philly’s that’s top-10 in scoring and top-5 in QB rating allowed.

2. PHI Offense vs LAC Defense

PHI Offense (rank among 32):

304.8 yds/g (24th) – total volume is meh 5.5 YPP (18th) – slightly below average Rush: 108.5 yds (22nd), 4.0 YPC (24th) Pass: 196.2 yds (23rd), 6.9 Y/A (11th), QB rating 101.9 (5th) Scoring: 22.5 ppg (19th)

So the Eagles’ offense is efficiency > volume: not a ton of yards, but above-average passing efficiency and very few INTs.

LAC Defense:

275.2 yds allowed (3rd) YPP allowed 5.2 (8th) Pass D: 168.3 yds (2nd), 5.8 Y/A (5th), 75.6 opp QB rating (3rd) Run D: 106.9 yds (13th), 4.5 YPC (24th) – quietly leakier vs the run than the total yardage suggests Points allowed: 21.0 ppg (11th) Sacks: 2.8/g (8th) Takeaways: 0.9 INT/g (9th), but very few forced fumbles

Drive-level matchup:

PHI passes efficiently but not explosively in yardage; LAC is elite at choking yardage and QB rating. PHI run game has been inefficient (4.0 YPC), but LAC is more beatable on the ground than in the air (24th in YPC allowed). Hurts’ 0.2 INT/g (1st) vs LAC’s ~0.9 INT/g should flatten some of LAC’s takeaway edge.

Net:

LAC defense probably wins this matchup slightly: they can keep PHI in the low-20s, especially if they get the Eagles behind the chains. But Philly can lean into the run and short passing, limit turnovers, and avoid a meltdown.

3. LAC Offense vs PHI Defense

LAC Offense:

346.8 yds/g (10th) – real yardage offense 5.7 YPP (13th) Rush: 122.1 yds (12th), 4.5 YPC (12th) Pass: 224.7 yds (12th), 6.6 Y/A (15th) QB rating: 91.9 (13th) Scoring: 23.1 ppg (18th) Sacks allowed: 3.3/g (27th) – this is big; they give up pressure

So: balanced, above-average offense, but a bit sack-prone and with a higher interception rate than PHI (0.8/g, 25th).

PHI Defense:

347.2 yds allowed (25th) – they bend in yardage 5.5 YPP (17th) – very middle of the pack by play Run D: 128.9 yds (24th), 4.5 YPC (23rd) – average to below vs run Pass D: 218.2 yds (19th), Comp% allowed: 56.4% (1st) – elite Y/A allowed: 6.3 (11th) QB rating allowed: 77.1 (4th) Sacks: only 2.0/g (22nd) Takeaways: 0.7 INT/g (16th), 0.4 forced fumbles (4th) Points allowed: 20.8 ppg (9th)

So Philly’s D is classic bend-but-don’t-break: they give up yards, especially on the ground, but force incompletions, limit QB efficiency, and keep points down.

Net:

LAC will move the ball: they have top-10 yardage vs a defense that’s 25th in yards allowed. But their sack issues + higher INT tendency run into a defense that excels at contested throws and red-zone stops (suggested by the top-10 points allowed despite poor yardage). That’s the kind of matchup where LAC can pile up yards but wind up with FGs or a turnover or two.

4. Situational / Hidden Edges

Turnovers

PHI offense: 0.2 INT (1st), 0.5 fumbles (18th) → very clean in the air LAC offense: 0.8 INT (25th), 0.3 fumbles (11th) → more likely to have the back-breaking pick

Defensively, both take the ball away at a moderate rate, but the biggest gap is how risky each offense is. That strongly favors Philadelphia.

Penalties

PHI offense: 7.6 penalties/g (28th), 63.8 yds (29th) – undisciplined on that side of the ball LAC defense: 5.9 penalties (7th), 49.7 yds (8th) LAC offense: 6.7 penalties (16th), 49.8 yds (13th) PHI defense: 5.7 penalties (3rd), 50.0 yds (9th)

Overall, PHI’s defense is the most disciplined unit on the field, while their offense is the sloppiest in terms of flags. On balance, that slightly evens out, with maybe a small hidden edge to Philly because defensive penalties usually hurt more.

Special Teams

Field Goals: PHI: 12/16, 75.0% (29th) – bad LAC: 26/28, 92.9% (4th) – excellent Return Game: PHI KR: 23.4 yds (31st), PR: 10.3 (14th) LAC KR: 25.5 (17th), PR: 7.2 (27th) PHI Coverage: KR allowed 23.8 (4th), PR allowed 11.4 (19th) LAC Coverage: KR allowed 29.0 (31st), PR allowed 15.1 (30th)

So:

Kicking accuracy: big edge to Chargers Coverage vs returns: big edge to Eagles (LAC is awful in coverage)

Net ST impact:

LAC more likely to make their kicks from distance. PHI more likely to steal field position on returns vs LAC’s poor coverage units.

Call it roughly a wash overall, but if this turns into a FGs-only game, slight edge LAC; if it becomes a field-position battle, edge PHI.

5. Game Script & Style

Quarter splits:

PHI offense: Huge in 1Q (6.6, 3rd), then average in 2Q/3Q, and bad in 4Q (4.7, 30th). LAC defense: Solid across quarters, no big collapse spots. LAC offense: Decent in 1Q (5.4, 10th), fine in 3Q, but middling in 2Q and 4Q. PHI defense: Strong 2Q & 3Q; shakier in 4Q (7.0 allowed, 18th).

Likely flow:

Eagles start fast (they usually do) and get the early lead. Middle quarters are more of a grind: both defenses adjust; drives slow down. Chargers make a push late – especially through the air – but their sack/INT risk against a good situational defense keeps it from turning into a full comeback.

6. Who Wins & By How Much?

Putting it all together:

Reasons to lean PHILADELPHIA

Better turnover profile (Hurts vs Herbert/Lance). Slight edge in overall defensive efficiency vs scoring: both Ds are good, but PHI is top-10 in points allowed with elite comp% and QB rating against. LAC’s offensive line/sack issues vs a defense that, while not high-sack, is fundamentally sound and disciplined. LAC’s recent volatility (JAC game) compared to Hurts’ steadier floor.

Reasons to like L.A. CHARGERS

Stronger total yardage offense AND defense (top-10 offense, top-3 defense in yards). Much better kicking game, which matters in close contests. PHI offense has underperformed in yardage and is penalty-prone.

On a neutral field, the numbers basically call this a coin flip with maybe a tiny statistical lean to the Chargers on raw yardage and a tiny situational lean to the Eagles via turnovers and QB stability.

Given how much close NFL games swing on turnover margin and late-down QB play, I’ll side with the cleaner QB:

🔮 Projected Winner: PHILADELPHIA (very narrow edge)

Projected Final Score

Philadelphia 23 L.A. Chargers 20

Implied script: PHI leads most of the way, Chargers threaten in the 4th, but a key stop or takeaway plus one late Eagles drive for either a FG or clock-killing possession seals it.