Short version: Everything points to Denver taking care of business on the road again. I’ve got Nuggets winning 123–110 (Denver covers, total lands slightly under the current number).

1. Big-picture context

Record & form Denver: 16–6 overall, 10–2 on the road with a nine-game road winning streak.  Charlotte: 7–16 overall, 5–6 at home.  Recent 10-game trends (from your sheet) DEN: 6–4 W/L, 4–6 ATS, but 9–1 to the Over – offense absolutely rolling. CHA: 3–7 W/L, 5–5 ATS, 2–8 to the Under – tempo and/or efficiency on their side has come down. Market view Spread is sitting around Denver -10.5, total 233.5–234.5, moneyline roughly DEN -480 / CHA +370.  Implied team totals from one model: DEN ~122.5, CHA ~112.0.  ESPN matchup predictor has Denver ~78–79% win probability. 

2. Denver offense vs. Charlotte defense

This is the core mismatch.

Recent offensive heater (Denver)

From the last-10 log, Denver’s scores: 134, 135, 121, 130, 136, 125, 123, 112, 125, 127 – about 127 PPG over the last 10. That lines up with the “Key Stats” section:

Denver offense last 10-ish FG%: 51.3 (1st) Points: 125.5 (1st) 3P%: 39.8 (top tier) FT%: 83.1 (3rd), FTs made 21.4 (6th) This is elite shooting at all three levels.

Charlotte’s defense in that same comparison:

Defense vs DEN offense Allowing 118.4 PPG (23rd) Opponents hitting 49.1% FG (27th) Very average to poor at defending without fouling (and your FT metrics show DEN gets to the line more often and converts).

So: an elite half-court and transition offense (Denver) vs a below-average defense (Charlotte) that’s already allowing big numbers. That’s why so many Denver games are flying over and why the market hangs a big number like -10.5 on the road.

Specific angles:

Playmaking & efficiency: Denver has been near the top in assist/turnover ratio and overall offensive flow all season; your sheet shows Denver AST/TO 2.2 (1st in the earlier block) – they’re not beating themselves. Paint & perimeter: Denver is hitting nearly 40% from three in this recent stretch. With Gordon out, they lean even more on Jokic/Murray/MPJ two-man and three-man actions, which tend to create clean looks inside and out. Charlotte’s defensive personnel is thinned (see injuries below), which makes consistent stops against Jokic-led offense even tougher.

3. Charlotte offense vs. Denver defense

This side of the ball is more balanced.

From the CHA offense vs DEN defense block:

Charlotte offense FG%: 46.6 (12th) – respectable. 3P%: 34.3 (7th) – above-average perimeter efficiency. Points: 116.8 (18th) – mid-pack scoring. They move the ball reasonably well (26.9 AST, 18th) and don’t turn it over a ton (12.1 TO, 30th = best at protecting the ball in that table). Denver defense Allowing about 114–115 PPG (21st) in that table context – so not a lockdown unit; more “good enough, with elite offense” than a defensive juggernaut. They’re solid on the glass: REB 44.5 (15th), DREB 32.8 (5th) – that’s important against a CHA team that’s pretty good at generating extra possessions.

Recent scoring profile for Charlotte

From the last 10:

111, 86, 104, 103, 118, 123, 101, 110, 116, 108 → roughly 109–111 PPG over the last 10. They’ve gone 2–8 to the Under, which suggests: Lower pace. Or more inconsistent offense. Or improved defense versus weaker teams.

Against Denver, they’ll likely play a bit faster than their recent under trend, because Denver pushes pace when they’re rolling and forces opponents into more possessions just by scoring efficiently.

4. Injuries & depth

Denver

Out: Aaron Gordon (hamstring) Christian Braun (ankle) Julian Strawther (back)

Impact:

They lose one of their primary switchable defenders and rim-pressurers in Gordon, plus a key bench wing in Braun. However, core offensive engines (Jokic, Murray, Porter Jr.) are healthy, and this team has still gone 9 straight road wins despite this.

Charlotte

Out / likely out: Grant Williams (ACL/knee) Josh Green (shoulder) Pat Connaughton (calf) Tre Mann (ankle/knee) Moussa Diabate GTD, minor rotational role. LaMelo Ball: your data shows ankle issues and him starting last game with limited minutes; the most recent official injury report does not list him as out, suggesting he’s expected to play, but he’s coming off a recent ankle problem.

Impact:

Perimeter depth is really thin (Green, Connaughton, Mann all out), which is rough vs Jamal Murray and Denver’s off-ball movement. If LaMelo is even slightly limited or has to cap minutes, Bridges/Miller/Knueppel have to shoulder more creation, which can bog down in the half court against a disciplined defense. Charlotte’s bench is heavily compromised; Denver’s staggered rotations with Jokic often roast short benches.

5. Head-to-head & stylistic edge

Denver has won the last 6 meetings vs Charlotte, including 129–115 in February 2025, and covered a massive -16.5 in that one.  The H2H trend matters less than current form, but it shows Denver’s offense consistently outclasses Charlotte’s defense.

Stylistically:

Denver’s half-court offense is about the worst possible matchup for a team missing multiple wing defenders and depth. Charlotte’s best shot is: Pushing pace, bombing threes, and hoping to get hot. Drawing Jokic into foul trouble (which is easier said than done). But Charlotte has been playing in more under-ish environments recently and lacks the defensive personnel to keep Denver under 115–120 if the Nuggets are locked in.

6. Predicted outcome & score

Putting it all together:

Denver advantages Elite recent offense (125+ ppg over last 10). 9-game road winning streak, 10–2 away.  Best player on the floor by far (Jokic), plus Murray/MPJ edge Charlotte’s perimeter talent especially with their injuries. Strong defensive rebounding; should limit CHA to one-and-done possessions often. Charlotte advantages / paths At home, where they’ve been a bit better ATS.  LaMelo + Bridges + Miller can create enough scoring to keep them from getting completely blown out. Denver can get a little lax defensively when up double digits, leaving room for a late backdoor.

My call

Winner: Denver Nuggets Spread lean: Denver -10.5 (I project ~13-point win; some backdoor risk but still value on DEN side). Total lean: Slight lean Under 234.5 — Denver will score, but Charlotte’s recent under pattern and thinner rotation cap their ceiling a bit.

Projected final score

🏀 Denver Nuggets 123 – Charlotte Hornets 110

That fits:

Denver slightly over their implied 122.5 team total. Charlotte a bit under their implied 112. Game total 233, just under market 233.5–234.5.

Obviously, anything can happen in a single game, but based on stats, injuries, recent form, and market signals, Denver comfortably profiles as the likely winner by low-to-mid teens.