DEN has pretty clear statistical edges almost everywhere here, so I’ll walk through the matchup both ways and then give you a score call.

1. When DEN has the ball (DEN O vs LV D)

Overall profile

DEN offense: 340.8 yds/g (12th) 5.5 yds/play (17th) 23.7 pts/g (13th) – solidly above average LV defense: 323.2 yds/g allowed (16th) 5.4 yds/play allowed (10th) 25.7 pts/g allowed (26th)

Takeaway: LV is a “bend and then break” defense: decent on a per-play basis, but they still give up a lot of points.

Run game

DEN rush O: 119.3 rush yds/g (14th), 4.6 yds/rush (11th) LV rush D: 110.8 rush yds/g allowed (15th), 3.8 yds/rush allowed (3rd)

So:

LV is very efficient vs the run (top-3 in yds/rush allowed). DEN runs efficiently too, but this is one of LV’s biggest strengths.

Likely outcome:

DEN should still get enough on the ground to stay on schedule, but don’t expect them to dominate. Think respectable but not explosive rushing numbers – more 3rd-and-manageable than constant chunk plays.

Pass game

DEN pass O: 221.5 pass yds/g (14th) 36.1 attempts (5th most – high volume) 61.4% comp (24th – low) 6.1 yds/attempt (23rd – inefficient) 84.8 QB rating (23rd) LV pass D: 212.5 pass yds/g allowed (18th) 67.2% comp allowed (24th – they let QBs complete a lot) 6.9 yds/attempt allowed (23rd) 94.7 QB rating allowed (23rd) Just 1.9 sacks/g (26th) and 0.7 INT/g (18th)

So LV’s pass defense:

Allows high completion rates, mediocre yards per attempt, and a lot of points. Doesn’t generate much pressure or takeaways.

DEN’s passing game isn’t super efficient overall, but:

They protect the QB extremely well: 1.2 sacks allowed/g (1st fewest), only 7 sack yards (1st). LV’s pass rush is below average.

Likely outcome:

Even though DEN’s raw passing efficiency isn’t great, this is a nice matchup:

Clean pockets + a defense that gives up a high completion rate and above-average scoring. Expect DEN to move the ball more through the air than their season YPA suggests, especially off play-action and in obvious passing downs where LV can’t get home.

Turnovers & penalties

DEN offense: 0.8 INT/g (20th) 0.3 fumbles/g (10th) – decent ball security 8.2 penalties/g (31st) for 76.3 yards (32nd) – massive hidden-yardage problem LV defense: 0.7 INT/g (18th) 0.5 forced fumbles/g (32nd – last) 7.3 penalties/g (26th), 56.5 yds (24th)

Edge:

DEN’s biggest offensive weakness here is self-inflicted: penalties. They can stall their own drives. LV doesn’t create many turnovers or negative plays to bail themselves out.

Net: DEN should sustain drives, but expect a couple of drives killed by flags.

Scoring profile (by quarter)

DEN offense: 1Q: 4.4 pts (17th) 2Q: 6.6 (20th) 3Q: 3.3 (24th) 4Q: 8.8 (3rd) – strong closers LV defense: 1Q: 4.8 pts allowed (23rd) 2Q: 7.8 (24th) 3Q: 7.0 (30th) 4Q: 5.4 (8th)

Game script implication:

DEN can absolutely have a big 4th quarter against almost anyone, and LV in particular is vulnerable in the 3rd. If DEN is leading entering the 4th, they’re statistically very good at extending that lead.

2. When LV has the ball (LV O vs DEN D)

This is where the mismatch really shows.

Overall profile

LV offense: 259.5 yds/g (30th) 4.8 yds/play (30th) 14.9 pts/g (31st) – one of the worst scoring offenses DEN defense: 286.4 yds/g allowed (5th) 4.8 yds/play allowed (1st) – elite efficiency 18.2 pts/g allowed (4th)

So you have:

Bottom-2 offense vs top-5 defense in both yards and points. That’s the core of this handicap.

Run game

LV rush O: 75.4 rush yds/g (32nd) 22.1 rush attempts (29th) 3.4 yds/rush (32nd) – dead last in rushing efficiency DEN rush D: 93.1 rush yds allowed (5th) 25.1 rush attempts faced (9th) 3.7 yds/rush allowed (2nd)

Edge:

LV already can’t run on average defenses. Against a top-5 run D that’s top-2 in yds/rush allowed, their ground game is likely almost nonexistent. That makes LV one-dimensional very quickly, putting even more stress on a struggling passing attack.

Pass game

LV pass O: 184.1 pass yds/g (26th) 31.6 attempts (20th) 67.3% comp (9th – not bad) 5.8 yds/attempt (27th) – lots of short completions, little downfield damage 8.7 yds/completion (29th) – extremely low depth; dink-and-dunk QB rating 80.2 (28th) DEN pass D: 193.3 pass yds/g allowed (9th) 34.9 attempts faced (26th) 57.8% comp allowed (2nd) – they force incompletions 5.5 yds/attempt allowed (2nd) QB rating allowed 75.1 (2nd) 4.2 sacks/g (1st)

So:

LV’s pass game is already inefficient and conservative. DEN’s pass defense is elite in completion prevention, YPA allowed, QB rating, and pressure.

Combine that with:

LV sacks taken: 3.8/g (31st) and 27.6 sack yds (31st) DEN sacks: 4.2/g (1st)

This is a nightmare trenches matchup for LV’s offensive line. DEM can generate pressure without blitzing, which lets them keep coverage solid behind it.

Turnovers & penalties

LV offense: 1.2 INT/g (31st – very turnover-prone through the air) 0.2 fumbles/g (5th – ok ball security otherwise) 7.2 penalties/g (23rd), 58.4 penalty yds (23rd) DEN defense: 0.6 INT/g (22nd – slightly below average) 0.2 forced fumbles/g (29th – low) 8.0 penalties/g (31st), 57.6 penalty yds (26th)

Even though DEN’s raw INT rate is modest, LV’s QB play and protection issues suggest:

Good chance of at least one turnover, maybe two, via pressure-induced mistakes.

Scoring profile (by quarter)

LV offense: 1Q: 3.2 pts (28th) 2Q: 3.6 (31st) 3Q: 2.2 (32nd) 4Q: 5.3 (25th) DEN defense: 1Q allowed: 3.9 pts (11th) 2Q: 5.5 (8th) 3Q: 4.2 (16th) 4Q: 4.0 (3rd)

Game script implication:

LV is bad in every quarter, but especially 2Q and 3Q. DEN’s defense is strong early and very strong in the 4th. If LV falls behind, their offense is not built to chase vs this defense.

3. Special Teams & Hidden Yardage

Return/coverage

DEN ST: Punt returns: 13.4 yds (7th – strong) KO returns: 24.7 yds (26th – below average) LV coverage: Punt returns allowed: 13.3 yds (26th – poor) KO returns allowed: 27.5 yds (32nd – worst)

This suggests:

DEN can win field position through punt returns and possibly break one big return vs LV’s weak coverage units. LV ST: Punt returns: 6.9 yds (29th – poor) KO returns: 27.6 yds (6th – good) DEN coverage: Punt returns allowed: 9.6 yds (14th – fine) KO returns allowed: 28.3 yds (29th – bad)

Net:

LV might get a couple decent KO returns, but their offense is so weak that they may not fully capitalize. DEN has the better overall scoring unit and a chance to steal a drive with a big PR.

Kicking game

DEN kicking: FG att: 22 (24th) FG made: 19 (23rd) FG%: 86.4 (16th – league average-ish) LV kicking: FG att: 21 (26th) Made: 16 (28th) FG%: 76.2 (27th – below average)

If this turns into a red-zone-stall / field-goal type game:

DEN has a notable edge in FG reliability.

4. Strengths vs Weaknesses – Summary

DEN strengths:

Top-5 defense in yards and points, with elite efficiency (1st in yds/play allowed, top-3 in YPA allowed). Elite pass rush vs one of the worst pass-protecting offenses. Offense that is above average in yardage and scoring, with an especially strong 4th quarter. Very good punt return game, okay FG kicking. Offense protects the QB extremely well (least sacks allowed).

DEN weaknesses:

Lots of penalties, especially yardage – they can shoot themselves in the foot. Passing efficiency is only middling; they’re more volume than explosive. Facing a strong LV run D could make them a bit one-dimensional early.

LV strengths:

Run defense efficiency is a real positive (3rd in yds/rush allowed). Special teams KO return unit can be dangerous in spots.

LV weaknesses:

Offense is bottom-2 in yards, yards/play, and points. Rushing attack is worst in the league; they likely cannot run at all vs DEN. Pass game is low-depth, low-efficiency, and behind a line that allows many sacks. Defense allows a lot of points despite decent yardage numbers. Kicking is unreliable; they struggle to convert stalled drives into points.

Given all that, LV basically needs:

An outlier turnover game in their favor, plus DEN penalty meltdowns and ST breakdowns,

to swing this matchup. Statistically, that’s not the most likely scenario.

5. Predicted Outcome & Final Score

Assuming no major surprise injuries or weather and a neutral-ish field:

Game flow I expect: DEN’s offense starts a bit slowly vs LV’s solid run D but still moves the ball through the air. LV’s offense struggles immediately against DEN’s front, with drives stalling due to sacks and negative plays. By halftime, DEN has a one-score to borderline two-score lead. Second half: LV becomes one-dimensional, pressure ramps up, and a turnover or two gives DEN short fields. DEN’s strong 4th-quarter scoring profile extends the lead; LV might tack on a late FG or cosmetic TD, but not enough.

My call

Likely winner:

🟠 DEN to win, clearly the stronger side on both sides of the ball.

Projected final score:

DEN 24 – LV 13

DEN around 23–27 points is consistent with: Their 23.7 pts/g average LV’s 25.7 pts/g allowed A slight downward adjustment for LV’s competent run D but upward for LV’s poor scoring defense. LV around 10–16 points is consistent with: Their 14.9 pts/g average (31st) DEN’s 18.2 pts/g allowed (4th) Matchup disadvantages in run game, pass protection, and QB efficiency.

If you’re thinking spreads/totals in your head, this profile roughly maps to something like DEN −6 to −7 range and a total in the high 30s.