I’ve got it as a tight, physical game that slightly favors Green Bay at Lambeau.

My prediction: Packers 27, Bears 23

Below is how I get there from the numbers you gave plus injuries/recent form.

1. Chicago offense vs. Green Bay defense

Core profile (your table):

CHI offense 374.2 yds/g (6th) 5.8 YPP (11th) 153.8 rush yds/g (2nd) on 31.2 att (2nd), 4.9 YPC (5th) 220.4 pass yds/g (15th) Only 58.2% completions (31st), but 11.3 yards/completion (3rd) → explosive, not efficient 26.1 pts/g (8th) GB defense 284.8 yds allowed/g (4th) 4.9 YPP allowed (3rd) 98.3 rush yds allowed/g (8th), 3.9 YPC (6th) 186.5 pass yds allowed/g (6th), 5.7 YPA allowed (4th) 18.8 pts allowed/g (6th)

So this is a classic strength-on-strength:

Bears have a top-2 rushing attack and use it a lot. Packers have a top-10 run D and a top-6 pass D.

Caleb Williams trend

Recent games:

vs PHI: 17/36, 154 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 4.3 Y/A, 56.9 rating vs PIT: 19/35, 239 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, 6.8 Y/A, 104.3 rating vs MIN: 16/32, 193 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 6.0 Y/A, 68.9 rating vs NYG: 20/36, 220 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 6.1 Y/A, 83.1 rating vs CIN: 20/34, 280 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, 8.2 Y/A, 114.8 rating

He’s been protecting the ball (8 TD / 1 INT overall) and can spike to very high efficiency, but there are still stretches of low completion percentage and stalled drives.

Injury impact

Bears WR Rome Odunze is OUT (foot) – their leading receiver (44 rec, 661 yds, 6 TD).  That’s a big hit to the passing game on third downs and in the red zone. More pressure on DJ Moore, Luther Burden III, and the TEs. Chicago will likely lean even more into 12 personnel and the run game to compensate. 

What this side of the ball suggests

Bears should still run effectively, but GB’s front is good enough that it’s more like 4.5–4.8 YPC than a total steamroll. Without Odunze, Chicago’s explosive pass plays are somewhat capped; GB’s secondary has been strong all year. So I see Chicago moving the ball, but with more FGs and a couple of stalled red-zone drives, not a 30+ outburst.

I penciled in about 22–24 points for Chicago before looking at the other side; that settled at 23 in the final prediction.

2. Green Bay offense vs. Chicago defense

Core profile (your table):

GB offense 340.6 yds/g (13th) 5.7 YPP (12th) 117.2 rush yds/g (16th), 4.0 YPC (23rd) 223.4 pass yds/g (13th) 7.4 Y/A (6th), 103.7 QB rating (4th) → very efficient passing 24.5 pts/g (10th) CHI defense 359.0 yds allowed/g (27th) 6.3 YPP allowed (30th) 133.8 rush yds allowed/g (28th), 5.2 YPC allowed (30th) 225.2 pass yds allowed/g (22nd), 7.2 Y/A allowed (28th) 25.6 pts allowed/g (25th)

So here it’s strength vs. weakness:

Green Bay has a top-10 passing efficiency offense. Chicago has bottom-5 numbers in yards per play and run defense and bottom-10 pass metrics.

Jordan Love trend

Recent games:

vs DET: 18/30, 234 yds, 4 TD / 0 INT, 7.8 Y/A, 124.2 rating vs MIN: 14/21, 139 yds, 0 TD / 0 INT, 6.6 Y/A, 85.2 rating vs NYG: 13/24, 174 yds, 2 TD / 0 INT, 7.3 Y/A, 105.2 rating vs PHI: 20/36, 176 yds, 0 TD / 0 INT, 4.9 Y/A, 68.8 rating vs CAR: 26/37, 273 yds, 0 TD / 1 INT, 7.4 Y/A, 80.1 rating

Seasonally he’s at 7 TD / 1 INT in the recent split, and 19 TD / 3 INT overall per betting previews. 

That’s elite ball security with good explosives.

Defensive injuries

Bears are missing multiple defenders (Ruben Hyppolite II, Tyrique Stevenson) on top of several IR guys in the front seven and secondary.  Packers are missing some OL (Zach Tom, Elgton Jenkins), DL (Devonte Wyatt), and edge depth (Van Ness), plus some skill guys, but the offensive core with Jordan Love is intact. 

What this side of the ball suggests

Chicago’s run defense is a real liability: 133.8 rush yds allowed and 5.2 YPC. GB’s ground game isn’t dominant, but the matchup should juice their efficiency. Given Love’s high QB rating and Y/A, plus Chicago’s weak pass Y/A allowed, GB should be able to: Stay ahead of the sticks. Hit a few intermediate/deep explosives off play-action.

I comfortably get Green Bay into the mid-20s here, with upside to 30 if they finish drives cleanly. I settled on 27 once I accounted for pace and weather.

3. Situational edges: quarters, form, H2H, weather

Scoring by quarter

CHI offense 1Q: 6.2 pts (5th) → fast starters 4Q: 8.2 pts (5th) GB offense 1Q: 3.4 pts (27th) → slow starters 4Q: 9.8 pts (1st) → best closing offense in the league CHI defense 4Q: 8.7 pts allowed (27th) → they leak late. GB defense 4Q: 7.4 pts allowed (23rd).

This points to a common script:

Bears jump out early → Packers adjust → game swings late in GB’s favor.

Recent form & momentum

From the recent coverage:

Bears are 9–3, on a 5-game win streak and 8–2 ATS last 10.  Packers are 8–3–1 with 3 straight wins, 6–2 SU in last 8. 

So both are hot, but:

Chicago’s offense has been putting up 24+ regularly, powered by the run. Green Bay’s defense has been consistently stingy in yards and points.

Head-to-head trends

Recent history is heavily Green Bay:

Packers are 8–1 SU in their last 9 home games vs Chicago, and 11–2 SU in their last 13 vs Bears overall. 

That doesn’t decide this game by itself, but it matters when you’re splitting hairs on a close matchup in Lambeau.

Weather / environment

Forecast: around 18°F, light wind (~9 mph), classic cold Lambeau conditions.  That: Slightly depresses long-ball passing. Emphasizes run game & short passing, ball security, and comfort in the cold.

Both teams can run, but:

Green Bay is built and used to playing in these conditions. The Bears want to be run-heavy anyway, but if they fall behind, asking a rookie QB minus his WR1 to sling it in 18°F against a top-6 pass defense is rough.

4. Special teams & hidden yards

From your numbers:

Bears ST Punt return: 10.3 yds (16th) KO return: 26.1 yds (11th) FG: 26/31 (83.9%, 20th) but high volume (31 attempts, 3rd) Packers ST Punt return allowed: 13.4 yds (27th) KO return allowed: 27.3 yds (11th) FG: 19/25 (76.0%, 28th), fewer attempts

Give CHI a small edge in field position and FG reliability, but nothing so big it flips the game.

If anything, the Bears’ high FG volume reinforces the idea that they move the ball but stall enough that they don’t fully cash in their yardage edge with touchdowns.

5. Putting it together: who wins and why

Why I lean Packers straight up:

Matchup edge for GB offense vs CHI defense. Chicago’s defense is bottom-5 in YPP, run D, and near bottom in pass efficiency allowed. Green Bay’s offense is top-10 in passing efficiency with elite QB rating and low turnovers. Injuries favor GB’s side of the ball. Bears missing their WR1 (Odunze) and multiple defensive contributors.  Packers have injuries too, but their QB and main passing game structure are intact. Environment + H2H. Lambeau in the cold, where GB is 8–1 SU in their last 9 vs CHI.  Bears are historically shaky there and now bringing a rookie QB into that spot. 4th-quarter profile. GB is the #1 4Q scoring team, Chicago is bottom-tier in 4Q defense. Perfect setup for Green Bay to steal or extend a game late.

Why I still keep it relatively close (not a blowout):

Chicago’s run game is legit. Even against a top-10 run D, a #2 rushing offense usually finds a way to stay in schedule and sustain drives. Caleb Williams’ turnover profile. Only 1 INT in the season split you gave, so he’s not gifting short fields regularly. GB’s ATS and home-total tendencies. Packers 3–7 ATS last 10, and 5 of their last 6 home games have gone UNDER, pointing to competitive, lower-variance scores at Lambeau. 

So I land on:

Green Bay wins, but Chicago hangs around.

6. Final predicted score & script

Final prediction: Packers 27, Bears 23

Rough game flow:

1st half Bears come out leaning on the run, use play-action to DJ Moore. Packers start slower, adjusting to Chicago’s fronts. Halftime score in the neighborhood of CHI 13 – GB 10. 2nd half Green Bay starts leaning on both the run and intermediate passing; Love hits one big TD drive in the 3rd. Bears answer with sustained drives but are forced into 1–2 key FGs instead of TDs without Odunze. In the 4th, Green Bay’s offense/experience and Chicago’s 4Q defensive struggles show up: one more TD drive plus a late clock-killing drive seals it.

Box-score style expectation:

Chicago Total yards: ~360 Rushing: ~150–165 Passing: ~200–215 2 TD, 3 FGs Green Bay Total yards: ~355–375 Rushing: ~120–135 Passing: ~230–245 3 TD, 2 FGs

So: Packers win, Bears stay competitive, and it plays very close to the current total and spread, just with Green Bay slightly on top.